What are Turkiye’s Interests in Syria?
TurkeyR
President Erdogan is reportedly planning a big trip to Syria, with the delegation set to include ministers in charge of the economy and investment. What are Turkiye’s longstanding security, political and economic interests vis-a-vis its southern neighbor? Sputnik asked a pair of Turkish international affairs and security experts.“I think politically and economically, it’s quite important for Turkiye to have a strong Syria in the southern border,” Turkish security policy expert Furkan Halit Yolcu told Sputnik, commenting on Erdogan’s reported Syria visit plans.“That means stability. That means less danger from the YPG, that means less threat of instability and less headaches with the migration problem with the Syrians influx into Turkish territory,” Yolcu explained.
“Turkiye always had a foot in the soil itself,” the observer emphasized. “They were controlling Idlib province through non-state actors and their own soldiers. So it's not like a direct increase in the engagement or the interest towards Syria, but I think it's the manifestation of an infrastructure in diplomacy that was already there.”
Maintaining strong influence over the development of Syria’s new political framework is “essential” for Ankara, Yolcu says, not only given the two countries’ roughly 800 km-long common border and Turkish concerns related to the Kurdish problem, but Turkiye’s interest in natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean Sea region.
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Building on Established Roots
“The Turkish government has great influence on the new Syrian administration because most of them have been educated in Turkiye, trained by Turkiye, and now even some in the government speak perfect Turkish because they have been educated in Turkish universities,” Turkish international relations expert Huseyin Bagci told Sputnik, commenting on the opportunities afforded to Ankara by the post-Assad government.In the economic sphere, besides trade and reconstruction, Ankara’s interests include efforts to ensure the return of the millions of Syrians living in Turkiye back to Syria “in the coming months and years,” Bagci said.Trade, which reached roughly $2.3 billion in 2010 before the onset of the Syrian civil war, could easily top $20 billion, the analyst believes, with plenty of opportunities available amid the nearly complete destruction of Syria’s infrastructure in the 13-year-long dirty war.”The Turkish policy in Syria, why it is essential to continue the influence there – it is very natural. Because Haqan Fidan, the foreign minister, has been the former MIT director, security intelligence director, he knows everyone there. And also the new political framework of Syria is going to be mostly, as far as I can see, shaped by Turkey and Turkish influence. But I have to be very modest and neutral. It will take time to see how this influence will be exercised on the political developments there. But Turkey is in the euphoria of this success and to see that Bashar Assad is out and the new government is in,” Bagci summed up.
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